Rudy Giuliani

Former Mayor of New York.

debbie1991 — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 20:16:34 -0400

I want a public apology from Rudy. At the RNC he said he became a Rep. to get rich not a Dem waiting for a hand out from the government. This tells us what the Rep's are all about. Why was this over looked at the RNC not one news program looked at this.

Giuliani = Hevesi

Bob Fertik — Fri, 30 Nov 2007 00:16:26 -0500

Rudy Giuliani's scandal sheet is a mile long and as vivid as technicolor. But one adjective has been absent from all of Rudy's scandals - illegal.

Until now.

Atrios writes:

Well before it was publicly known he was seeing her, then-married New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani provided a police driver and city car for his mistress Judith Nathan, former senior city officials tell the Blotter on ABCNews.com. "She used the PD as her personal taxi service," said one former city official who worked for Giuliani.

Big Tent Democrat pounces:

There oughta be a law! Oh wait, there is one:

[NY State Comptroller Alan Hevesi's] decision to step down came as Albany prosecutors were preparing to ask a grand jury to indict him on charges of defrauding the government and on other felonies stemming from his use of state employees as chauffeurs and aides to his wife, a law enforcement official said, charges that could have yielded a prison sentence had he been convicted.

Sounds like Rudy committed a felony to me.

For those who live in the other 49 states, New York's political scene was consumed for months with vicious attacks on Hevesi, a progressive Democrat with a long career of honorable public service. Republicans threatened impeachment, prosecutors prepared indictments, and the New York Times and other newspapers wrote endless editorials demanding Hevesi's resignation, which he ultimately tendered.

It is unthinkable that the New York media would apply a different standard to Giuliani than to Hevesi.

Put a fork in Rudy - he's done.

Update 1: Former Mayor Ed Koch hates Giuliani, and suggests Rudy may have committed another crime by assigning police protection to Judi:

Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani acted improperly and appeared to be covering something up when he charged the cost of his and his girlfriend's security detail to obscure New York City agencies, former mayor Ed Koch told the Huffington Post.

. . . "There is something improper about charging costs to a department other than the NYPD," said Koch. "They are the ones who are supposed to pick him up no matter where he is whether or not it's in the city."

Koch, who served as the mayor of New York City from 1978 to 1989, said that the episode gave off the appearance that Giuliani, who was at the time married to his second wife Donna Hanover, was trying to hide his affair. He also suggested that Judith Nathan received her own personal protection, which would have been, according to Koch, a flagrant misuse of taxpayer money.
"I found it strange that his lady friend was given protection," said the long-time New York politico. "That was bizarre. She's not the city's responsibility. Rudy is the city's responsibility. Your wife and his children get protection, and that's understood. But certainly not your lady friend."

Paul Singer: Giuliani's Neocon Billionaire

Bob Fertik — Fri, 23 Nov 2007 13:20:54 -0500

Who is Paul Singer? Despite his vast wealth, he's so secretive that the NY Times had to ambush him to get his photo, and he clearly was not pleased.

this year Mr. Singer became one of the biggest supporters of Rudolph W. Giuliani’s presidential campaign, making his jet available to Mr. Giuliani, while Mr. Singer and workers at his companies have donated $200,000 to the campaign. And he became the largest individual backer of a California ballot initiative that many Democrats believe could sink their chances of winning the presidency.

Suddenly, the normally low-profile Mr. Singer, a New Yorker, found himself singled out by Democrats intent on beating back the California effort before it gained any steam.

Howard Dean, the chairman of the Democratic Party, questioned “Paul Singer’s involvement in this dirty trick aimed at stealing the White House.” A group of Democrats filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission charging that Mr. Singer had been acting on behalf of Mr. Giuliani in his efforts to change the California law — which Mr. Singer and the campaign deny. And the Democratic National Committee drew attention to the part of Mr. Singer’s business that involves buying the debt of poor countries at a discount and then seeking repayment in full — prompting an article in The Times of London labeling his firm, Elliott Associates, a “vulture fund.”

Although Singer describes himself as a "libertarian conservative," he has a long neocon resume:

He is a trustee of the Manhattan Institute, a conservative research organization that provided Mr. Giuliani with a number of policy ideas when he was mayor, and has served on several boards, including the board of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, which advocates a close military alliance between the United States and Israel, and Commentary Magazine.

He donated $250,000 to the Club for Growth, a group that promotes free-market policies and tax cuts, and which has praised Mr. Giuliani this year.

Over the years, Mr. Singer has been a major donor to Republican causes. He gave $1.5 million to the Progress for America Voter Fund, an advocacy group set up in 2004 to advance the policies of the Bush administration. The group ran commercials during the 2004 presidential campaign in Midwestern battleground states featuring the smoky ruins of the World Trade Center, while portraying Senator John Kerry as weak on military budgets. Mr. Singer was also a donor to the Swift Vets and P.O.W.’s for Truth, which ran advertisements attacking Mr. Kerry’s Vietnam War record.

Of course Singer isn't Giuliani's only neocon supporter. Giuliani's most notorious advisor is Norman Podhoretz, the author of "World War IV: The Long Struggle Against Islamofascism" and “The Case for Bombing Iran.”

Podhoretz has argued that “if we were to bomb the Iranians as I hope and pray we will…we’ll unleash a wave of anti-Americanism all over the world that will make the anti-Americanism we’ve experienced so far look like a lovefest.”

In which case, God help us all.

Rudy the Protector

Bob Fertik — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 10:43:11 -0400

James Carroll nails it:

Could the United States actually elect as president a Yankee fan who has been rooting for the Red Sox? A father whose own children would boycott his inauguration? A husband whose first wife was his cousin and whose current wife can't remember how many times she married? Could the United States, for that matter, elect a cross-dresser? The Rudy Giuliani surge would be comic if its broader implications were not so grave.

So why is he the GOP frontrunner?

The answer is obvious. A run-of-the-mill political hack was transformed into the nation's only hero on Sept. 11, 2001. While President Bush cowered in Curtis LeMay's SAC bunker in Omaha, Giuliani was striding toward Armageddon.

For the crucial hours during and after the trauma, Giuliani provided an image of resolve and courage in which every American could glimpse a strength of character that the nation sorely needed, and for which, therefore, we were profoundly grateful. As the world's heart opened to the United States that day, Giuliani's unfeigned decency shone as a kind of beacon. Encouragement to rescuers, authority to panicked crowds, calm to television viewers, a man in charge - he was there with what was needed.

Of course he wasn't any kind of leader worthy of respect. He strode the streets to get away from the disaster center he put in the stupidest place possible to reward a wealthy landlord, and 300 firefighters died because he signed another sweetheart deal with Motorola for radios that didn't work.

But for those who are afraid of terrorists, the facts are meaningless. All that matters is a strongman who will protect them, and Rudy is perfect:

He's like a gang leader now, roving the streets, looking for some punk to bash. Iran will do. Thus, his political appeal has two components, one positive - the nobility of his instinctive performance under fire - and one negative - the bitterness of his will not so much to defend America as to avenge it. Giuliani's gritty, urban toughness seems perfectly matched to the national mood, but that's because it also carries an unmistakable, if unarticulated, edge of self-pity.

Has America lost its collective mind?

It is not that this country made too much of the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks when they occurred, but that the nation has since constructed an unprecedented existential outlook around them. The United States has never regarded the broader world with more anxiety than it does now, and Giuliani is the tribune of warning. They are out there! They are coming at us! I will protect you.

A variety of unrelated or loosely related problems have been clenched into the one fist that is raised above this country now. Important distinctions have been lost, the way fingers disappear when the hand becomes a weapon.

Criminal terrorism, the threat of failing states, Islamic extremism, nuclear proliferation, the energy crunch - such challenges can be individually handled with practical strategies, but when they are clustered into an undifferentiated mass of global dangers, visceral dread trumps reason. Every aluminum pipe proves the existence of a nuclear weapons program. Immigrants threaten from every direction. Phone calls and e-mails must be monitored by an omnivorous and omniscient government.

Of course every effort by Bush and Cheney to turn the War on Terror into a never-ending "blame game" (Osama, Saddam, Ahmadinejad) has failed to eliminate terrorism.

We've also tried killing Muslims more or less indiscriminately and it doesn't work.

So what solution can Democrats offer to terrifed, non-thinking Americans who are drawn to Rudy the Protector?

Money Trumps Power

Bob Fertik — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 13:18:47 -0400

Josh Marshall says Power Trumps All:

I've told a number of people over the last few days that for all the talk of this evangelical third-party candidacy if Rudy gets the nomination, I'll believe it when I see it. Sam Brownback, a big pro-lifer, appears to be laying the groundwork for a Rudy endorsement. It makes a hypocrite of one or the other of them. Probably both. But I bet you'll see others making their peace as well, especially if Romney doesn't, can't make the sale.

Josh is probably right about Brownback and many other militant Republican "pro-lifers" who will dutifully line up behind Giuliani if he's the nominee.

Why will they sell their souls to Giuliani? Partly for the power, but also for the money - Giuliani's rich backers will use their checkbooks to "reward" Rudy's friends and "punish" Rudy's enemies.

But a third-party anti-abortion candidacy will have nothing to do with the actions of Republican "pro-lifers." Rather, it will depend entirely on the two most important and influential players in the the anti-abortion movement - James Dobson and Richard Land.

Both Dobson and Land lead huge organizations - Focus on the Family (Dobson) and the Southern Baptist Convention (Land).

Neither of them gets a penny from the Republican Party. Their leadership is based entirely on their uncompromising opposition to abortion, which keeps money flowing from their hard-core anti-abortion "base."

If they support Giuliani either actively or passively (by not supporting a third party candidate who is truly anti-abortion), they will lose all their credibility with their base - and the tens of millions their organizations raise each year from them. It's an organizational life-or-death decision for Dobson and Land, not a "political" one.

The key question is whether a credible abortion opponent will step forward to run as a third-party candidate.

Dobson's protege Gary Bauer is considering a third-party run, and he would certainly be credible to Dobson and Land. Ron Paul is open to the idea, although his Libertarian philosophy is quite different from Christian theocratic thought. And if there is a complete vacuum, never count out Alan Keyes.

On October 11, Sean Hannity spent 20 minutes begging Dobson to support Giuliani - to absolutely no avail. Dobson could never support Giuliani not only because of abortion, but because of his three marriages, his support for gays, and - something he could never say out loud but matters tremendously to him - Rudy's Catholicism. Ditto for Richard Land.

So what will happen? I can't guarantee there will be a third party candidacy, but James Dobson, Richard Land, and the money-driven "pro-life" movement will actively oppose Rudy Giuliani, because their fundraising depends on it.

On this issue, money trumps power.

Rudy's Teen-Molesting Priest

Bob Fertik — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 19:18:30 -0400

If you thought Rudy Giuliani's devotion to mobbed-up Bernie Kerik showed appalling judgment, wait until you learn about Monsignor Alan Placa - an accused teen molester who has Giuliani's total support.

That's Placa on the right with Rudy and Judy during a trip they took to Rome together in January.

Brian Ross of ABC News is on the story - the same Brian Ross who exposed Mark Foley's abuse of Congressional Pages.

Giuliani Defends, Employs Priest Accused of Molesting Teens

Presidential candidate Rudolph Giuliani hired a Catholic priest to work in his consulting firm months after the priest was accused of sexually molesting two former students and an altar boy and told by the church to stop performing his priestly duties.

The priest, Monsignor Alan Placa, a longtime friend of Giuliani and the priest who officiated at his second wedding to Donna Hanover, continues to work at Giuliani Partners in New York, to the outrage of some of his accusers and victims' groups, which have begun to protest at Giuliani campaign events.

"This man did unjust things, and he's being protected and employed and taken care of. It's not a good thing," said one of the accusers, Richard Tollner, who says Placa molested him repeatedly when he was a student at a Long Island, N.Y. Catholic boys high school in 1975.

At a campaign appearance in Milwaukee last week, Giuliani continued to defend Placa, who he described to reporters as a close friend for 39 years.

"I know the man; I know who he is, so I support him," Giuliani said. "We give some of the worst people in our society the presumption of innocence and benefit of the doubt," he said. "And, of course, I'm going to give that to one of my closest friends."

Close indeed. According to Wikipedia,

Placa was best man at Giuliani's wedding to second-cousin Regina Peruggi and then assisted Giuliani get that marriage annulled over the objections of his wife so that he could marry girlfriend Donna Hannover.

Here's what Brian Ross discovered about Placa:

The accusations against Placa were made in testimony before a Suffolk County grand jury in 2002.

Tollner, now a mortgage broker in Albany, N.Y., says he was one of three people to testify about Placa.

"This man harmed children. He still could do it. He deserves to be shown for what he was, or is," says Tollner.

Appearing publicly for the first time today on ABC News' "Good Morning America," Tollner says the abuse started when he and Placa were in the high school making posters for a Right to Life march.

"As he started to explain how these posters should be done, I realized that something was rubbing my body," Tollner said. "After a minute or two, I realized that he's feeling me, feeling me in my genital area."

The grand jury report concluded that a Priest F, who Tollner says is Placa, abused the boys sexually "again and again and again."

"Priest F was cautious, but relentless in his pursuit of victims. He fondled boys over their clothes, usually in his office," the report said.

The report concluded that Priest F, and several other priests under investigation from the same Long Island, N.Y. diocese, could not be prosecuted because the statute of limitations had expired...

In addition to the allegations that Priest F was personally involved in the sexual abuse, the grand jury also said that Priest F became instrumental in a church policy that used "deception and intimidation" to keep the church scandal quiet.

Placa served as a lawyer for the diocese in dealing with allegations of abuse against other priests and, according to the grand jury report, claimed he had saved the church hundreds of thousands of dollars in his handling of possible litigation.

Lawyers for alleged victims say Placa would often conduct interviews, in his priest garb, without making it clear he was the church lawyer.

"He was a wolf in sheep's clothing," said Melanie Little, a lawyer for several alleged victims of sexual abuse by other priests in the diocese.

"He was more concerned with protecting the priests, protecting the reputation of the diocese and protecting the church coffers than he was protecting the children," said Little.

Since going to work for Giuliani Partners, the former mayor and the priest have continued to be close.

So why has this story received virtually no coverage beyond ABC? Why aren't FOX's morality gestapo - Bill O'Reilly and Sean Hannity - all over this scandal?

Can you imagine if this was a Democrat???

Of course the question answers itself. If Americans learned about Giuliani's defense of Placa, no one in America would vote for Giuliani. So this information will not get out because Giuliani is the annointed candidate of the Corporate Media.

Who is Paul Singer?

Bob Fertik — Tue, 16 Oct 2007 10:55:56 -0400

Today's news is that Rudy Mussolini likes to travel in style (h/t Jeralyn):

Whether it was $2,010 at the Greenbrier Hotel in West Virginia, $4,034 at La Costa Resort and Spa in Carlsbad, Calif., or $5,370 at the Fairmont Hotel in San Francisco, the former mayor found himself top-notch lodging.
He also spent more than $565,000 reimbursing various corporate supporters for private jet travel.
The biggest chunk of those flights came via Elliott Asset Management, a New York hedge fund known by some as a "vulture fund," so-named because they buy debt cheaply from cash-starved countries, and then sue them for the full repayment. The head of the firm, Paul Singer, is in charge of Northeastern fundraising for Giuliani.

Singer is credited with raising $500K so far, making him Rudy's largest fundraiser, and he pledged to raise $10M. In August, he graduated from fundraising to policy as Rudy's "Senior Policy Adviser." According to the NY Daily News, Singer joined Rudy's Middle East Task Force, home of Mussolini's neocon warmongers including Norman Podhoretz, who is praying for war with Iran.

Paul Singer made news in September when he admitted to providing all of the funds ($175,000) to put a referendum on the California ballot to divide the state's 55 Electors according to Congressional Districts, which would give the GOP 20 Electors that would otherwise go to the Democrat - roughly the size of Ohio or Pennsylvania. When Singer's role was exposed, the staff all quit and the effort went on hold - presumably until Singer finds a less-traceable way to launder his money.

So who is Paul Singer? A vulture who eats the flesh of the world's poorest people.

Singer is generally known as the original 'vulture' of the for-profit so-called 'vulture funds', which buy government bonds from poor countries and demand an exorbitant return on their loans. In 1996, Singer bought up some of the debt of Peru for $11 million and got back $58 million. He purchased a bond from the Democratic Republic of Congo for about $10 million, sued in court for $400 million and ended up with $127 million... His estimated personal net worth is $700 million.

Besides being a vulture, Singer may also be a vampire, which would explain why it's hard to find a photo - as everyone knows, vampires can't be photographed.

Singer's flesheating requires the help of the President, as Greg Palast explains:

Here’s how a vulture operation works. The vulture fund buys up the debt of poor nations cheaply when it is about to be written off and then sue for the full value of the debt plus interest — sometimes more than ten times what they paid for it. Singer, for example, paid just $10 million for Congo Brazzaville’s debt and is now suing for over $400 million.
Singer knew he’d turn a 1000%-plus profit on his $10 million investment with George Bush’s help.
Bush convinced the US Congress to forgive the money Congo owes the US taxpayer, but once the US taxpayer forgives Congo’s debt, the vulture, Singer, swoops in with lawyers to claim, “Congo now has the money to pay ME.”
But wait a minute - the debt money given up by US taxpayers wasn’t supposed to go to Rudy’s predator Singer. In fact, the US Constitution provides power to the President to stop vultures from suing a foreign country in a US court if the President states such a private lawsuit interferes with America’s foreign policy.
Singer, by suing Congo for the taxpayer money meant for debt relief and medicine, is interfering with US foreign policy. Yet Bush has done nothing.

Palast explained the vulture business to Randi Rhodes in June:

Singer is an up-and-coming GOP funder. He gave just $5K to the Swift Boaters in 2004, compared to millions from Bob Perry, the Houston homebuilding magnate who also put his money behind George Bush's smear campaign against John McCain in the 2000 primaries. Apparently Singer wants to be Rudy's Perry, using his vast wealth to manipulate the political system without getting Rudy's hands dirty.

And with $700 million in his pocket, Singer can do a lot to steal the 2008 election, as he tried to do in California - so we'll need to keep a very close eye on him.

Update 1: Here are Singer's federal campaign contributions courtesy of OpenSecrets.org.

Date	Amount	Recipient
6/8/2007	$2,300	Miller, Candice S
3/16/2007	$200	Giuliani, Rudolph W
3/13/2007	$2,300	Giuliani, Rudolph W
2/21/2007	$2,000	Sununu, John E
2/5/2007	$2,100	Giuliani, Rudolph W
1/12/2007	$25,000	Republican National Cmte
10/31/2006	$5,000	Republican Party of Ohio
10/13/2006	$5,000	New Hampshire Republican State Cmte
10/6/2006	$10,000	Republican Party of Florida
9/20/2006	$10,500	Lieberman, Joe
6/1/2006	$2,000	Specter, Arlen
5/15/2006	$1,300	Corker, Bob
5/15/2006	$1,000	Talent, James M
5/3/2006	$1,000	Cantor, Eric
5/1/2006	$500	Restore America PAC
3/31/2006	$900	Kean, Thomas H Jr
3/31/2006	$1,100	Kean, Thomas H Jr
3/31/2006	$2,000	Steele, Michael
3/30/2006	$2,000	Kennedy, Mark
3/30/2006	$2,000	McGavick, Michael
3/25/2006	$1,900	Santorum, Rick
3/23/2006	$1,000	Kean, Thomas H Jr
2/17/2006	$2,500	Volunteer PAC
1/31/2006	$25,000	National Republican Senatorial Cmte
1/23/2006	$700	Kyl, Jon
12/16/2005	$1,000	Snowe, Olympia J
11/16/2005	$2,000	Coleman, Norm
9/29/2005	$900	Kyl, Jon
8/9/2005	$500	Talent, James M
5/23/2005	$2,000	Talent, James M
4/28/2005	$2,000	Santorum, Rick
4/26/2005	$5,000	Volunteer PAC
4/26/2005	$2,000	Burns, Conrad
4/25/2005	$2,000	Kyl, Jon
4/8/2005	$25,000	National Republican Senatorial Cmte
3/16/2005	$1,000	Baker, Richard
2/15/2005	$1,900	Cornyn, John
2/15/2005	$2,100	Cornyn, John
2/12/2005	$2,000	Allen, George
2/12/2005	$2,000	Allen, George
10/20/2004	$500	National Auto Dealers Assn
5/18/2004	$2,000	Nethercutt, George R Jr
5/7/2004	$2,000	Vitter, David
5/4/2004	$2,000	Burr, Richard
5/3/2004	$2,000	Murkowski, Lisa
4/12/2004	$5,000	Volunteer PAC
2/9/2004	$17,500	National Republican Senatorial Cmte
2/6/2004	$1,000	Bennett, Robert F
12/15/2003	$1,000	Chocola, Chris
11/26/2003	$2,000	Bunning, Jim

Update 2: here is the rest of Mussolini's finance team.

The Real Rudy Part 1: Rudy Lies About the Emergency Command Center

Bob Fertik — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 13:56:42 -0400

Our friends at Brave New Films have just unveiled The Real Rudy:

"It's just not possible."
That was the sentence we heard over and over from families who had firefighter sons, brothers, husbands and fathers killed on 9/11, from experts on emergency response, and from investigative journalists. It was just not possible that Rudy could so distort what happened on 9/11 and his role on that terrible day.
These experts, these grieving and furious family members, were united only by the fact that this story had to be told. Republicans, Independents, and Democrats could agree on just one thing: the cold hard facts about Rudy's terrible handling of 9/11 and the aftermath.
And so we went to work. We researched, we read, we interviewed. Jason locked himself in a quiet room. Christopher flew across the country at a moment's notice to interview. Lissette went over and over the footage. Leda kept juggling schedules so we could get the film done. Jimmy worked the phones to try and raise some funds.
And here it is... The REAL Rudy: Command Center. The first of a devastating four-part series.
We need your help. We don't have ad budgets, so like all our videos, we are counting on you to spread these to your email list, to your local paper, to blogs, to websites. We are fortunate that today we have the new technology and ability to reach millions, but it only happens when you send the video with notes to as many people as possible.

Giuliani and photo ops.

jjpberg — Sun, 12 Aug 2007 18:53:24 -0400

Firefighters, police and rescue workers claim that Rudy Giuliani used ground zero as a photo op. to help his political career. Thinking back ,Rudys' suit seemed to get dustier and he covered his mouth while running away from ground zero. Rudy claims that only a Republican can win this war. Bush who Rudy "runs and ducks" whenever he is close after all the help Bush gave to Rudy is the Commander and Chief and a Republican in this 5 years plus war. Over 127,000 assault weapons are missing and pressumed to be in the hands of our enemies being used against our troops and whatever allies we have left. That's reassuring. Who keeps on top of things over there? Millions are missing from a wharehouse where apparently anyone can walk in there and help themselves. Rudy you are about 5% points ahead of a t.v. drama actor. I'll bet you that President Hillary Clinton might give you a photo op. at the Easter egg hunt at the White House. Say it aint so Rudy!

Why McCain Failed - Analyzing Republican Voters

Bob Fertik — Tue, 17 Jul 2007 09:36:22 -0400

As vultures circle the McCain campaign, the conventional wisdom about his demise is that Iraq brought him down. As Arianna Huffington wrote,

John McCain's cratering campaign is an object lesson in how to kill a candidacy in three simple steps: 1) locate the biggest foreign policy disaster in U.S. history 2) embrace it 3) implode. (Bonus step: spend money like you are Paul Bremmer).

But Glenn Greenwald doesn't buy that analysis because the GOP base still supports the war:

The war in Iraq remains popular with the GOP base. They want to stay and keep waging war. They would immediately turn against anyone who advocated withdrawal or even questioned the wisdom of staying. The Republican Party continues to be the Party of the Iraq War, and -- directly contrary to the conventional wisdom that is arising -- loyal support for the Iraq War is an absolute pre-requisite for winning the nomination.

Chris Bowers weighs both arguments and triangulates by looking at independent voters who support McCain:

Compared to other Republicans, McCain has always enjoyed disproportionate support from Republican-leaning independents, "true" independents, and even Democratic-leaning independents. His primary base of support, both in terms of polls and fundraising, has a far more independent, purple hue to it than that of any other Republican. Thus, given the sharp independent turn against the Iraq war over the last two years, not to mention the Indycrat phenomenon of the same time period (a trend that was first identified by Jerome Armstrong), his hawkish positions made him far more out of step with his base of support than other top-tier Republicans. His base of support made him more immediately vulnerable to a hawkish position on Iraq, and that is why his campaign imploded first.

Of the three positions, Greenwald is right because Greenwald alone looks at the voters who matter to Republican candidates who are seeking the Republican nomination: Republican voters. And here is how Republican voters have leaned since the 2004 election:

As the graph makes clear, McCain was never the frontrunner - Giuliani has led the race from the start. Why? Because the #1 issue for Republican voters is fear of terrorism, and Giuliani's entire campaign is based on that fear, starting with his keynote address to the Republican Convention in 2004.

Fear of terrorism powered Bush's 2004 campaign, which drew overwhelming GOP support despite Bush's failure to find WMD's in Iraq and the growing insurgency that was killing U.S. soldiers every day. And of course that fear was constantly stoked by Tom Ridge's color-coded terror alerts, as Ridge later admitted.

Nevertheless, McCain was running a remarkably steady second place until January, when his support began to drop. And what caused the drop? As the blue line demonstrates, it was Fred Thompson's entrance onto the Presidential stage.

I'm going to speculate here because I don't have enough data to work with. Here's what I know from today's AP-Ipsos poll:

None of the top candidates has a clear lead among Christian evangelicals, a critical part of the GOP base that has had considerable sway in past Republican primaries. Giuliani, a thrice-married backer of abortion rights and gay rights, had 20 percent support — roughly even with Thompson and McCain who have one divorce each in their pasts. Romney, a Mormon who has been married for three decades, was in the single digits.

It looks me like White Protestant Republicans (especially evangelicals) never loved McCain, but they stuck with him until they had a better White Protestant Republican - namely Thompson.

Why wouldn't WPR's support Giuliani? Because he's Catholic - and pro-choice, pro-gay, and pro-divorce to boot. Why not Romney? Because he's Mormon, even if he defies Mormon faith by accepting Jesus as his savior.

A more interesting question is why WPR voters ignored the other WPR candidates - Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, and the now-departed Jim Gilmore. All of them are reliable Christian Conservatives, all smart, attractive, and articulate, yet none have risen above background noise in the polls.

Perhaps, as Greenwald points out, Brownback hurt himself with the pro-war GOP base by questioning the war. Huckabee's fatal flaw was raising taxes in Arkansas, thereby violating another sacred principle of the GOP. Perhaps there were just too many of them dividing the hard-core evangelical vote.

But here's an even more abstract theory: perhaps none of them could appeal to the media and financial elites in Washington DC and New York City, so they never got the "buzz" they needed to emerge from the pack.

Fred Thompson was able to appeal to the media elites simply because of his acting career, and so he got the buzz.

And when you analyze evangelicals, you discover the Hollywood aura is more important than ideology and "values." After all, it was Ronald Reagan who brought evangelicals into Republican politics in the late 70's and 80's, even though he was the first major Presidential candidate who was ever divorced.

The strength of Thompson's Hollywood aura will be put to the test when he ends his campaign striptease and formally declares his campaign. Thompson isn't entering the race as a conservative virgin - he's already been tagged as lazy, with a morally suspect "trophy wife," and a tawdry career as a lobbyist for "abortionists" and Haiti's "demon" president Aristide.

It's no surprise that evangelical voters are mostly watching and waiting. Looking at the GOP candidates, they have no one to love, but also no one to hate. It's entirely possible the next Republican candidate will not be "annointed" by evangelical voters, which could allow a Christian Democrat like Clinton or Obama to get enough evangelical votes to win.

Update 1: Greenwald makes a deeper point that I'm struggling with: that the Iraq War is a religious war, both in Bush's mind and in the minds of his evangelical followers.

Everything we do in the Middle East has religious and theological overtones. Whatever else is true, we are sending a largely Christian army into Muslim land to wage war against devotees of Islam. Many of the President's evangelical supporters are explicitly supportive of this militarism because of a generalized belief in the need to wage religious war (the Gen. Boykin view) or the specific doctrinal belief in the need to re-make the Middle East in preparation for apocalyptic events. That applies not only to Iraq, but to Iran and the broader Middle East.

While Greenwald cites examples of Bush claiming divine guidance, I don't think Bush perceives the Iraq War as a crusade of Christians against Muslims or as preparation for the Apocalypse, and he certainly never says such things. What he did say is "I do believe there is an Almighty, and I believe a gift of that Almighty to all is freedom." He also uses his press conferences to attack the view that the passion for freedom is limited to Christendom and is missing from the Muslim world.

So if the Iraq War isn't a "crusade" in Bush's mind, I don't hink it's a "crusade" in the mind of the GOP base either. So why are evangelicals the only ones who still support it?

I'd pinpoint the motivation as fear of terrorism, rather than religious zeal. Since 9/11, there has been a profound and palpable fear of Muslim terrorists in America's heartland. Those of us who live in the cities most likely to be targeted (like New York) think this fear of attack in the heartland is exaggerated and irrational. But simpler minds are less able to calculate the actual odds of being hit by a terrorist, so the incessant fearmongering on TV goes a very long way towards keeping heartland Christians in a permanent state of fear.