A week ago, Obama got into big trouble when he said he would "refine" his 16-month Iraq withdrawal policy based on "more information" from "commanders on the ground." Was that a sign he was going to pull a "FISA flip-flop" on Iraq? Obama insisted he wasn't, and in today's NY Times he reiterates his 16-month withdrawal plan.

Unlike Senator John McCain, I opposed the war in Iraq before it began, and would end it as president.

But there appears to be a powerful force pushing Obama to not end the Iraq war - the Center for a New American Security, or CNAS for short.

Is CNAS the Democratic PNAC? As we all know, PNAC - the Project for a New American Century - was the campaign of neocons like Paul Wolfowitz and Richard Perle that persuaded Bush to invade Iraq. Is CNAS trying to keep us there over the objections of 70% of Americans and 70% of Iraqis?

Today the Pentagon Post's Jackson Diehl exposed CNAS's nefarious work:

Still, there's a better way for Obama to solve his Iraq problem -- one that is honest about the state and stakes of the war but still sharply differentiates him from McCain. What's more, it's a solution dreamed up by Democrats who are among the candidate's advisers on defense. As outlined by Michelle Flournoy, Colin Kahl and Shawn Brimley of the Center for a New American Security, the strategy would focus on the biggest difference between the presidential candidates -- which is not about troop withdrawals but about the role the United States should play in Iraq five or 10 years from now.

So according to CNAS there's little difference between Obama and McCain on troop withdrawals from Iraq?

Flournoy, a senior Pentagon official during the Clinton administration, points out that in the short term, the differences between Obama and McCain are mostly illusory. The next president will probably inherit an American force in Iraq of 130,000 to 140,000 troops -- and either one would probably reduce that number to about 100,000 in 2009. McCain will be obliged to remove at least some troops because of the strain on the military and the need to send reinforcements to Afghanistan. But Obama will find it hard to withdraw more than five brigades his first year even if he wants to.

Obama's plan - repeated today in the NY Times - is to remove 1-2 brigades each month for 16 months. So that is 12-18 brigades in his first year, not 5.

So why does CNAS say 5 brigades is the absolute maximum? 

"There are limits to how quickly you can draw down without risking real chaos," Flournoy said.  

Ah, "chaos" is a lovely word. Without it, the entire industry of "foreign policy experts" would immediately cease to exist. It can mean absolutely anything - or, in this case, absolutely nothing.

There are internal conflicts in Iraq which fall along sectarian lines. (Before the invasion, the neocon "experts" insisted there were no important sectarian differences.) Some of the sectarian groups are funded by foreign powers led by the U.S. and Iran. These sectarian conflicts have erupted into virtual civil war at times, but are currently in a less violent stage as a result of negotiations between the various parties, including the U.S. and Iran.

The overwhelming majority of Iraqis are united on one thing: that U.S. troops should leave Iraq. The Iraqi people are not worried about an invasion from Iran or any other neighboring power, or they would want U.S. troops to stay. 

They don't want U.S. troops to leave so they can start shooting at each other again. They want U.S. troops to leave so they can work out their differences through negotiations instead of violence.

The departure of U.S. troops will not result in "chaos" but exactly the opposite - it will result in negotiations over the structure of a fully "sovereign" Iraq. Why? Because Iraqis have to live with each other and therefore have to negotiate their differences.

The best model may be Lebanon. A few months ago, sectarian battles were raging in the streets of Beirut. Now the warring parties have formed a coalition government.

Negotiation is an ancient art in the Middle East. If U.S. troops leave Iraq, they will employ that art to start rebuilding their proud nation.

For Obama's sake, I sure hope he's not listening to the idiots at PNAC CNAS.