Chris Bowers makes the indisputable case that Barack Obama actually won Nevada by 13-12.
If the media was covering the Democratic presidential nomination campaign, then they would have projected Barack Obama as the winner of the Nevada caucuses, projected New Hampshire as a tie between Clinton and Obama, and declared that Clinton finished second in Iowa. That is, after all, what actually happened in the Democratic presidential nomination campaign, which is based on delegates, not popular votes from states. Instead of covering the Democratic presidential nomination campaign, the media is instead covering who wins the popular vote of individual states. While what the media is covering is interesting and closer to the concept of one person, one vote, it isn't the Democratic presidential nomination campaign.
Here are the delegate tallies so far according to CNN, looking only at delegates awarded in caucuses and primaries:
| |
Clinton |
Obama |
Edwards |
Kucinich |
| IA |
18 |
18 |
17 |
0 |
| NH |
11 |
12 |
4 |
0 |
| NV |
14 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
43 |
44 |
21 |
0 |
(Don't ask me how Obama's 13-12 win in Nevada results in a 14-14 tie - I'm just a blogger.)
But if all of the coverage given to primaries and caucuses matters, then Obama is actually ahead at this point. And Obama's lead will grow next Saturday if he wins South Carolina as expected.
Of course there is another category of delegates who are not awarded in primaries and caucuses - superdelegates (members of Congress, governors, and other Democratic bigwigs). According to CNN's count of superdelegates, Hillary currently leads Obama 174-85, with Edwards getting 34 and Kucinich 1.
I don't view superdelegate pledges as written in stone. If Democratic voters award more delegates to Obama than to Clinton, there would be enormous pressure on the superdelegates to reflect the will of Democratic voters. But who knows what would actually happen under those circumstances.
The Nevada caucus was a blow to Edwards. Entrance polls gave him 10% before the caucuses began, but the 15% threshhold left him with only 4% of the delegate-choosers. Edwards needs a stronger showing in his birth state of South Carolina to get back into the race.
