In 2006, Rahm Emanuel's DCCC wanted to talk about everything except Iraq. Fortunately Ned Lamont's campaign in the spring and summer of 2006 proved Iraq was a winning issue, and many Democratic candidates ignored the DCCC's advice, talked about getting out of Iraq - and won.
But now it's deja vu all over again.
Yesterday there was a special election in OH-05 to fill the seat vacated by the death of Paul Gillmor. It's a pretty solid red district, rated R+10. Local Democrats worked their hearts out to elect Democrat Robin Weirauch, or at least beat the spread. But Weirauch lost by 14%.
I didn't follow the campaign messages, but I trust Matt Stoller when he says Weirauch took Iraq off the table.
not putting Iraq front and center in your campaign is really weird. Weirauch mentioned it once, in brief in her opening announcement, without taking a position on it. And then at the very end she called for a responsible end to the war. It was not included in any paid media on TV to the district.
This is shocking because every poll shows Iraq is the most important issue for voters.
CBS News/New York Times Poll. Dec. 5-9, 2007. N=1,133 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
War in Iraq - 25
Economy/Jobs - 12
Health care - 7
Immigration - 4
Environment - 3
Gas/Heating oil crisis - 3
Poverty/Homelessness - 3
Terrorism (general) - 3
Other - 36
Unsure - 4
Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. Nov. 30-Dec. 3, 2007. N=1,245 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
War in Iraq - 32
Economy - 25
Health care - 19
Terrorism - 18
Illegal immigration - 15
Education - 10
Environment - 5
Other social issues - 5
Other - 4
None/All (vol.) - 10
Unsure - 1
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Nov. 1-5, 2007. N=1,509 adults nationwide. MoE ± 2.5.
The war in Iraq - 26
Health care - 16
Job creation and economic growth - 14
Terrorism - 13
Illegal immigration - 11
The environment and global warming - 8
Energy and the cost of gas - 6
Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage - 3
Other (vol.) - 1
All equally (vol.) - 2
And here's another poll from Gallup, 11/30-12/2:
So who at the DCCC is deciding which issues our candidates should run on - and which issues (like Iraq) they should ignore? Is it Rahm Emanuel? Chris Van Hollen? Some expensive but idiotic pollster?
It's time for the blogosphere to demand - and get - some answers.
Update 1: Stoller says the DCCC is citing different polls:
CNN 12/11:
- Economy: 29%
- War in Iraq: 23%
- Health Care: 20%
- Illegal Immigration: 14%
- Terrorism: 10%
WP/ABC 12/9:
- Economy: 24%
- Iraq: 23%
- Health Care: 10%
- Terrorism: 9%
- Illegal Immigration: 5%
Both polls show a small drop in concern over Iraq and a small rise in concern over the economy.
But there's a huge problem with the DCCC citing those polls: they were published on the last day of the campaign, long after decisions were made about which issues to use. One month earlier, when those decisions were made, Iraq was the #1 issue in both polls.
Also, Matt makes an important point: Democrats need to tie the Iraq War issue to the economy. How hard is that? It's child's play.
We've spent over half a trillion in Iraq so far, and we're on our way to $1.5 trillion. If we had spent that money at home, what could we have done with it? We could have invested massive sums in renewable energy and cut our dependence on foreign oil - and cut gasoline costs in the process. We could have helped owners of subprime mortgages so they didn't have to abandon their homes and destroy neighborhoods. We could have made health care affordable for everyone. And on and on.
But it's not just a "what-if" exercise. We don't have to sit idly by as Bush triples our Iraq spending from $.5 trillion to $1.5 trillion. Democrats in Congress can tell Bush he's not getting one more penny except what it costs to bring all our troops home - which shouldn't cost more than $50 billion.
