Iowa Caucus Results.-Final
January 4, 2008
SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.58%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 29.75%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.47%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.11%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 0.93%
UNCOMMITTED : 0.14%
SENATOR CHRIS DODD : 0.02%
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 1781 OF 1781
(PERCENTAGES ARE STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS.)
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Was anyone surprised at how poorly the 2nd tier did?
I'm not sure if this was a product of the unique process on our side in Iowa or simply voter sentiment breaking for the front runners, but I was surprised at how poorly Biden, Dodd, and Richardson polled. There had been some polling indications that Richardson was gaining some traction.
I'm guessing (since it's only a short wait) that all will hang on through New Hampshire before bowing out.
The 2nd tier was effectively killed off by the caucus...
method of requiring a minimum of 15% support for a viable group. Since our three DLC candidates had the strongest support, most of the 2nd tier--in the second choice groups--was eliminated. 2nd choicers joined the 3 leader's groups. Might not have happened this way in a conventional secret ballot numerical election process.
If you look at the numbers, Obama garnered just under 40% of the votes. Edwards and Clinton managed to get, together, almost 60% of the available votes. That 60% is the big question mark for New Hampshire and S. Carolina. Will that 60% remain intact or will it succumb to the football game image and go with a single leader. The Roman Circus is still alive and well for the bulk of the electorate.
Obama's majority came primarily from first time voters, the youthful college student voters, some 2nd tier group changes, and Republicans. Yup, Republicans. The GOP was determined in advance, that they did not want Hillary to win this one. They seem confident that they can defeat Obama easily. He was their target of choice.
Unless I'm mistaken, Biden and Dodd will still be on the ballots in NH & SC whether or not they have withdrawn. They will continue to draw votes from the almost tied top three.
NH is also problematic in that about 44% of it's electorate are Indies who really cannot be tracked.
Well, we know who will probably enter NH as the GOP leader. Shuckabee. And, he is one very dangerous man.
Electable candidates: all three of our leaders. The game ain't over till the fat man sings.
A mind once expanded can never return to its original dimensions.
Anne Hathaway: 1556-1623
The greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so.
OBAMA 08 -Believe-
Grinch,
I live in downstate Illinois in a county oppressively and completely dominated by Republicans since the inception of our statehood in 1832. Obama is attracting support among Republicans here in a way that no Democrat ever has. These Republicans are from the moderate edge of that end of the political spectrum. Many were people that declared and voted for Perot. Obama's support among these people is real and sincere. They are supporting Obama because they are sick of what is happening in this country and are thouroughly depressed at what has become of their party.
Obama's ability to attract these people, in addition to independants and energizing the youth vote will make him unstopable. The only person capable of bringing down the Obama Upwhelling is Barack himself. And while that is in the realm of possiblity, its unlikely.
With Obama as our nominee we increase the likelyhood of re-establishing the FDR coalition that set American of the road to prosperity.
mike kohr
Regarding...
"With Obama as our nominee we increase the likelyhood of re-establishing the FDR coalition that set American of the road to prosperity."
May we dare to dream...
"As a Christian, I believe that Separation of Church and State is Vital, not only for the People's Protection from an overzealous Theocratic Regime, but also for the protection of Religion from suppression."
I had to defend Obama today...
Against disturbing and disappointing rumors that have arisen regarding Obama's so-called intentions to basically oppress the "white population" under his tenure. It's astonishing that this type of ignorance still remains so prevalent in this age of easily accessible information. I actually had to reassure my ex-step father that Obama wasn't going to take his rights away...LOL.
"As a Christian, I believe that Separation of Church and State is Vital, not only for the People's Protection from an overzealous Theocratic Regime, but also for the protection of Religion from suppression."
Dems...the stories you are getting...
are coming out of someplace in Oklahoma via emails.
There was one thread over at DU that reprinted the email. It had been forwarded to her by a family member in Oklahoma.
Expect this throughout the primary season. These can be from the Repugnant Hate Machine already operating in high gear or from various hate groups including some rather intellectually challenged fundie groups.
All three leaders are vunerable to this kind of stuff. The most vulnerable are Obama and Edwards. The opposition has already used up it's Hillary garbage and are now just repeating it. Hillary can handle it--Obama and Edwards just might be really downed by it.
In any case, expect some people to do their worst. The worst is pretty bad.
A mind once expanded can never return to its original dimensions.
Anne Hathaway: 1556-1623
The greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so.
There has also been a ripple of trouble in NH...
there are some attack robocalls going out against Hillary. The calls identify themselves as part of the Obama campaign.
No one seems to know who is paying for the calls.
Hillary filed a complaint against the calls(political calls are legal in NH, even to people on the DNC list. She may have reconsidered the complaint--this is still breaking.
A mind once expanded can never return to its original dimensions.
Anne Hathaway: 1556-1623
The greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so.