OBAMA LEADS ALL REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES, Clinton losing to all

 
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Hillary Clinton has slipped in the latest Zogby poll. She is losing to all Republican candidates.

Barack Obama leads all five leading Republican candidates, showing he is our strongest candidate in the general election.

Edwards leads or ties the same crowd.

read poll:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1393

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Dunno Mike, Zogby is fine as far as he goes...

but my take on this is that none of our candidates are competing with any Repugnant right now--they are only competing with each other.

The time to defeat the Repugnants is during the GE.

People tend to lose sight of this thanks to all these polls who tend to ask the wrong questions of the wrong people. The result is a beauty contest, a Roman Circus so to speak, that appeals to the lowest common(very common)denominator amongst us.

In any case, the many polls serve us very badly.

A mind once expanded can never return to its original dimensions.

Anne Hathaway: 1556-1623

The greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so.

One more point about Zogby...

This poll was an online poll. The participants signed up in advance to participate. It is not the usual calling poll of random voices across the country. Margin of error in this particular poll was plus/minus 1%...a very tight poll indeed.

Because participation in this poll is essentially restricted to activist members, how definitive can it possibly be?

A mind once expanded can never return to its original dimensions.

Anne Hathaway: 1556-1623

 

The greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so.

Here is the entire DU thread on this poll...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&add...

The pros and cons of this poll are discussed. If the poll results agree with your ideas, then it seems to be acceptable. If it disagrees, then it is not. LOL!

Worth the time to read if you wish to understand how Zogby operates.

A mind once expanded can never return to its original dimensions.

Anne Hathaway: 1556-1623

 

The greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so.

MOMEMTUM

I am happy with the result of the poll.  I am even more encouraged that this poll reflects the results of many other polls that have consistantly shown Obama to be our strongest candidate in the general election.

These results confirm what I have been reading about the fear of the RNC about an Obama nomination and my personal conversations with activist Republicans.  The darksiders fear him.   

mike kohr

Glad you are happy with this poll Mike...

but be aware that the Rasmussen Poll says the exact opposite.

That I suppose is the beauty of polls and pollsters.

What the hell, just pick the one you like.

Cautionary note about all polls: Remember the last 7 years of polls which drove the media.

A mind once expanded can never return to its original dimensions.

Anne Hathaway: 1556-1623

 

The greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so.

Media Lavishes Attention On BOGUS ...

Internet Poll Showing Hillary Losing To Repubs is the title of this thread at DU.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&add...

The MSM jumped on this poll and have distributed it widely. It has been shown to be a Bogus Poll used to control the actual standing of our candidates.

Lots of folk got suckered in with this one.

A mind once expanded can never return to its original dimensions.

Anne Hathaway: 1556-1623

 

The greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so.

Hang the Mesenger, damn that Zogby!

You're right! I'm a fool! Only phone polls are accurate and only land line phone suscribers are eligible to vote in America. This damn internet is nothing more than a series of tubes anyhow.

(Does the fact that this message board is on the net invalidate all the posts here?) Just wondering.

-editted from Zogby-
"Myth 1 -- Polls predict the winners and losers. Actually, a poll is only a snapshot of a moment in time. It can point to trends, but things can change on election day, when a lot of undecided voters make up their minds. We do try to ask "projective questions" – i.e. to see how people will react to situations and messages, but a poll can only measure a fixed moment in time."

It's the trend that this poll highlights that's got me excited. And let us not ignore that a generic Democratic nominee in nearly all these polls is pulling historic highs, near 60%. Senator Clinton has not been able to post much more than a few point lead at any time during this election cylcle and seldom rises above the 50% threshold.

That is a big danger sign for our party. This very point is covered in "Newsweek," in this weeks issue, (page 13).

mike kohr

Yer no fool Mike...I never thought you were...

but Zogby suckered a lot of people in with this particular poll. This was not a phone poll to random dem voters...this was an invitational poll to subscribers to Zogby via email. Subscribers are essentially activists which skewed the poll.

When Bob has a poll here in dems.com, we have large groups of supporters for X, Y, or Z. They come in droves, advising all their friends to come in at the same time. Result: Skewed Polls until normalized by time. The Bell Curve still works.

This subject went crazy at DU and thats why I felt it was necessary to write corrections here.

The guy over there at DU who put the Rasmussen Poll into graphic form did us all a service.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&add...

Something happened to Obama around Oct 1st/Oct 10th. He dropped dramatically for whatever reason. As a matter of fact, while Obama is dropping in the Rasmussen, Edwards is climbing up slightly.

A mind once expanded can never return to its original dimensions.

Anne Hathaway: 1556-1623

 

The greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so.

Here's a "traditional" poll pointing in the same direction

          Unsure
    %
  1
  1
  1
  1

CNN  11/2/2007.

         

.


"Please tell me whether you would be extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, very unlikely, or extremely unlikely to vote for each of the following if that person were on the ballot in your state in next November's presidential election: [See below.]"  Options rotated

           

.

        Total
Likely
Total
Unlikely
Unsure
        % % %
  Illinois Senator Barack Obama 52 47 2
  New York Senator Hillary Clinton 51 48 1
  Former N.Y. City Mayor Rudy Giuliani 49 49 1
  Former N. Carolina Senator John Edwards 48 50 1
  Arizona Senator John McCain 46 54 1
  Former Tenn. Senator Fred Thompson 37 61 3
  Former Mass. Governor Mitt Romney 34 64 2

 

 

mike kohr

What was the methodology of this poll...

what was the size of the sample and from what source was the sample selected...and what was the margin of error?

Was this just one of those clik on CNN and take the poll...or was it phone.

It would appear to be just dems or else it would have been freeped and skewed.

One problem we have is that we have the Dems(left and right)and Indies and Greens. The Repugs just have the one voting block.

A mind once expanded can never return to its original dimensions.

Anne Hathaway: 1556-1623

 

The greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so.

Inner Poll vs. Outer Poll

None of the polls 'out there' ever really match my own internal poll. But they can be distracting, and sometimes make me look away from core considerations. I think we all must hold firm to Democratic principles in the face of all the flying opinions and loud-talking opinionators; in essence, poll our own 'good' selves, if we can still find 'em. The Republican "voting block" is due to them polling their own bad selves; they can all do that in unison, without even flinching, because every Republican is an open or a closet fascist. They don't really care what polls say unless those polls agree with their mean minds and cold hearts, but even then they're not swayed from their insidious intentions. It's crucial for all Democrats to evaluate a candidate according to how he/she speaks about democracy, the Constitution, working people, the poor, health care for all, separation of church and state, unions,etc. because those are the central issues that are common to us. That's our only hope to be a united voting block.

We don't need no stinking polls

Isn't it funny how frequently political polls support exactly what the pollsters want it to support. I can't take any of these polls to seriously other than the fact that it is just another political tool. Basically, most of these polls are the product of big companies that are basically Republican oriented and therefore very likely to be biased to report what they would like to see rather than the truth.

LOL Cloud! We stopped

LOL Cloud! We stopped electing the most qualified candidate decades ago. Instead, we now elect the most well-funded candidate, with the ability to buy the most leading (read biased) questions being asked in the various polls. And the shame is, the sheeple without the ability to think for themselves follow the polls almost as closely as they follow Britany's latest headline.

Kind of reminds me of the basic plot of The Treasure of Sierra Madre: the "American Dream," as explained by a con man, and betrayal.

Lemmings

Too true Bill. And to think that it might "...all be by design...", as suggested by a blogger:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&add...

makes our national non-attention more scary. But, by design or not it really does come back down to our citizenry which has fallen into a hole and doesn't want to climb back out. As much as I despise the neocons and their government takeover , they could not have done it without permission, and assistance of 'we the people.'

Missing the Point

This thread has morphed from the original point of Clinton's decline in many national polls into a critical dismissal of polling in general and the Zogby poll in particular.

But, to take the bait, I wish to point out if polling did not have value, candidates would nor spend the amount of money and time on them that they do. Polls identify trends at specific moments in time. And the Zogby poll as well as others point to a trend that should concern everyone on this board, Clinton's electability.

Below is a clip from the Zogby website:

Zogby on "Morning Joe"; Interactive Poll on the Money - VIDEO

Penn mischaracterized this latest online Zogby poll as our first interactive survey ever – a bizarre contention, since we have been developing and perfecting our Internet polling methodology for nearly a decade (Zogby Intreractive Methodology), and since Penn’s company has been quietly requesting the results of such polls from Zogby for years. We always comply as part of our pledge to give public Zogby polling results to any and every candidate and campaign that asks for them. What is interesting is that no other campaign has made as many requests for Zogby polling data over the years as Penn has made on behalf of Clinton.

Because Mark Penn is a quality pollster himself, we chalk up his contention that our poll is “meaningless” as a knee–jerk reaction by a campaign under pressure coming down the stretch. Several other polls – Zogby surveys and others – have shown her national lead and her leads in early–voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire have shrunk. This is not unusual. These presidential contests usually tighten as the primaries and caucuses approach.

Fritz Wenzel
Director of Communications
Zogby International

For those that have been hoodwinked into thinking that the Zogby poll is a "flash" internet poll that can be "freeped" I suggest you register to take the poll. They are very involved and time consuming.

to register go to: http://interactive.zogby.com/pollregistration/registration/index.cfm?ref...
mike kohr

Exactly the point

"But, to take the bait, I wish to point out if polling did not have value, candidates would nor spend the amount of money and time on them that they do."

Why do you think the candidates spend so freely on polls? Do you really believe it is to get the truth? Or could it be to get a number that says what they want it to say? Polling by todays standards is just another form of propaganda right up there with swift boat politics. Ask the questions in a way to get the response you want, e.g. "So Mayor, when did you stop beating your wife?"

I totally agree with Bill here, we no longer get to vote for the best qualified, we only get to vote against the worst choice. I remember the days when we spoke about our leaders in terms of "the cream rises to the top", now all I can say is "Shit Floats".

Thanks for the chuckle

Thanks for the chuckle cloud!

Polls ARE...

...a "snapshot in time" of SOMETHING.

That SOMETHING is not necessarily a measure of who people will vote for when there is ACTUALLY something at stake.

It is not simply that when voting time arrives the "polls" have wandered. The will of the people has changed. But rather, that the real deal forces folks to think hard.

It would be interesting to find an example in history where a poll is made and immediately thereafter an EMERGENCY election (completely unexpected) had to commence. Somebody out there must have an example on at least a tiny scale of this. Class president, best coach of the year, etc...

Polls DO predict however. They're simply not as accurate as professed as per the above. I agree as well that they are used as tools to coral folks: "I'll only vote for a winner" mentality. "I will not speak out for a loser" sensibility.

Obama widens lead in Iowa

The candidate I feel best positioned to deliver substantive change and reform, Barack Obama, according to the latest polls has widened his lead in Iowa and continues to make gains in New Hampshire and nationally. Obama is at 28%, Clinton is at 25%, Edwards is at 22%, a statistical tie due to margin of error of the polls, but a further sign of solidification of Obama's lead in Iowa.

Buried in the polling data is the consistant statistic showing that Obama remains the candidate as the most popular second choice of Iowa voters that are backing another candidate. Under Iowa'a caucus rules if a candidate can not reach 15%, that candidate's supporters recast their vote for another candidate.

Ex. If Richardson (polling at 9% in most recent polls) does not reach the 15% threshold at a local caucus his voters at that caucus are free to recast their votes for another candidate. Given this rule, in addition to Obama's current lead in the polls, he is in a sweet spot.

Clinton may be forced to go negative which may re-enforce negative perceptions of her nationally, and historically, going negative in Iowa often backfires explosively.

mike kohr

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