Republicans Running UphillWith More House Seats to Defend,
Funding Looms LargeBy JUNE KRONHOLZ
October 19, 2007; Page A6

(See Corrections & Amplifications item below.)

WASHINGTON -- The bad news keeps getting worse for the Republicans.

They have twice as many seats to defend as Democrats next year in the narrowly divided Senate. The Democratic presidential candidates are raising twice as much money as the Republicans. And now it looks like the party will even have trouble holding its ground in the House, which had been considered its best shot.

A dozen House Republicans have announced they won't stand for re-election next year, a wave of retirements that could grow and leave the party with fewer seats next year and perhaps well beyond. Even veterans in safe Republican seats are heading for the exits, including former Speaker Dennis Hastert. This summer he announced he would be leaving Congress at the end of this term, but yesterday aides said he would step down late this year or early next year.

The Republican congressional campaign committee is in debt, while the Democrats' committee said Wednesday it has raised $28 million. "Right now we're in a race with ankle weights," Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole, the committee's chairman, said this week.

Without campaign funds to spread around, the party is having trouble recruiting candidates. Meanwhile, the Iraq war has energized the liberal Democratic base and angered independents, who deserted the Republican Party in 2006 and seem unlikely to return.

Party operatives still speak confidently about their electoral chances, noting there is a large class of freshman Democrats elected on slim majorities in 2006 and a bigger group of Democrats representing Republican-leaning districts. Meanwhile, they predict the presidential election will boost Republican turnout, and Republicans will try to force Democrats into casting unpopular votes as the election draws nearer.

"I like the way the battlefield is tilting," Mr. Cole said. "The terrain favors us."

Republicans also take cheer from the strong showing their candidate made Tuesday in a special election to fill an open seat in Massachusetts. Jim Ogonowski polled 45% of the vote in the traditionally Democratic district north of Boston, despite campaign visits from President Clinton and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for Democrat Nikki Tsongas. Ms. Tsongas, widow of former Sen. Paul Tsongas, who held the seat in the 1970s, won with 51%.

But others see bad news for the Republicans. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report predicts an additional 16 Republicans could retire before the election. Typically, about 30 congressmen resign each election cycle. A key difference this year is that only two Democrats have announced they are leaving so far, both to run for the Senate.

"The worse things get, the more discouraged [Republican] members are, the more likely they are to look for something else to do, and the worse things get," said Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin. "It's an accelerating ride downhill," adds Republican strategist Craig Shirley.