"Sen. Sam Brownback, the Kansas Republican, is ideologically acceptable but has turned out to be a bit weird and an inadequate campaigner." At least that's what Joe Conason said when writing about the Republican slate from the evangelical POV.

(the October 5 article can be found at

a href"http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071019/

ap_on_el_pr/brownback;_ylt=AuGr0V2NvYnkddNGvy

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To me, this is signifigant for a couple of reasons. The first reason is the seeming disconnect between the mainstream Republican frontrunners versus their conservative "values voter" base. Rudy can raise money, Romney can raise money -- why, heck, even Ron Paul can raise money. Why is it, then, that a vote block estimated by some to represent half of Republican support since Ronald Reagan came to power, can't advance its agenda or raise money for the candidates most closely aligned with its values?

(an interesting WP article on this topic is at

a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/18/AR2007

101802579.html?hpid=topnews)

Brownback is well liked by James Dobson, and has been a guest on his radio show several times. Someone in the media -- I can't remember who -- recently quipped something to the effect that "Rush Limbaugh has listeners; James Dobson has followers"  For that reason, I take his threat of a third party candidacy absolutely seriously. I have to think, however, that social conservatives are going to see how much common ground they can now find with Romney and McCain, or try to raise that $30M that Newt says he needs to get into the race.

While it does fascinate me that popular Republicans like Rudy and Arnold break with their party's mainstream on issues like choice and marriage rights, I don't think we will see the emergence of the next Nelson Rockerfeller-liberal Republican wing of the party. I do think that Brownback's failure shows that their leadership (or at least their big contributors) are willing to set aside an agenda that has driven their party for almost 30 years if that will buy 4 more years in power. As often as many of us think of Hillary as "Republican lite", there is a palpable fear among Republicans  about what happens if she comes to power. Imagine that fear if Kucinich, Obama, or Gore were up front.

Another question: does the schism stop with social conservatives? Ron Paul raised $5M in a week, despite little or no chance of him taking the nomination. Doew he ultimately run as a Libertarian, and pull the small-government wing of the Republican party with him, as well as those who genuinely support a corporate agenda, but also oppose the war in Iraq?

Meanwhile, what will Sam do. He says he will try to reclaim the Kansas governor's mansion in 2010, currently held by [gasp!] a female Democrat. I believe Kansas has term limits, so Kathleen Sebelius won't run against Sam, which is a pity. However, it will be interesting to see if she runs for his vacant seat, and helps to maintain a blue spot on what has otherwise been a very red state for quite sometime now.