Josh Marshall says Power Trumps All:

I've told a number of people over the last few days that for all the talk of this evangelical third-party candidacy if Rudy gets the nomination, I'll believe it when I see it. Sam Brownback, a big pro-lifer, appears to be laying the groundwork for a Rudy endorsement. It makes a hypocrite of one or the other of them. Probably both. But I bet you'll see others making their peace as well, especially if Romney doesn't, can't make the sale.

Josh is probably right about Brownback and many other militant Republican "pro-lifers" who will dutifully line up behind Giuliani if he's the nominee.

Why will they sell their souls to Giuliani? Partly for the power, but also for the money - Giuliani's rich backers will use their checkbooks to "reward" Rudy's friends and "punish" Rudy's enemies.

But a third-party anti-abortion candidacy will have nothing to do with the actions of Republican "pro-lifers." Rather, it will depend entirely on the two most important and influential players in the the anti-abortion movement - James Dobson and Richard Land.

Both Dobson and Land lead huge organizations - Focus on the Family (Dobson) and the Southern Baptist Convention (Land).

Neither of them gets a penny from the Republican Party. Their leadership is based entirely on their uncompromising opposition to abortion, which keeps money flowing from their hard-core anti-abortion "base."

If they support Giuliani either actively or passively (by not supporting a third party candidate who is truly anti-abortion), they will lose all their credibility with their base - and the tens of millions their organizations raise each year from them. It's an organizational life-or-death decision for Dobson and Land, not a "political" one.

The key question is whether a credible abortion opponent will step forward to run as a third-party candidate.

Dobson's protege Gary Bauer is considering a third-party run, and he would certainly be credible to Dobson and Land. Ron Paul is open to the idea, although his Libertarian philosophy is quite different from Christian theocratic thought. And if there is a complete vacuum, never count out Alan Keyes.

On October 11, Sean Hannity spent 20 minutes begging Dobson to support Giuliani - to absolutely no avail. Dobson could never support Giuliani not only because of abortion, but because of his three marriages, his support for gays, and - something he could never say out loud but matters tremendously to him - Rudy's Catholicism. Ditto for Richard Land.

So what will happen? I can't guarantee there will be a third party candidacy, but James Dobson, Richard Land, and the money-driven "pro-life" movement will actively oppose Rudy Giuliani, because their fundraising depends on it.

On this issue, money trumps power.