Hillary: What Went Wrong

As Hillary Clinton ends her campaign, I can't help but note that she came so incredibly close to being the first woman to be nominated by the Democratic Party, and the first woman President.

Hillary started as the frontrunner because of her fame, her dramatic personal story, her powerful organization and fundraising machine, her very popular husband, and her powerful charisma. So what happened?

As a candidate, she had just a few weaknesses: the Hillary-hate industry, her vote in favor of the Iraq War, and plain old-fashioned sexism.

The Hillary Haters were a powerful force on rightwing TV, radio, and blogs. They got started during the 1992 campaign, and they never went away. They published endless books and spread endless lies. I thought they would be a factor in the Democratic campaign, but I was wrong - they never made a serious dent.

But Hillary's pro-war vote hurt her far more than the pundits are willing to acknowledge. The millions of activists who protested the war before it began are the "base" of the Democratic Party. Hillary could have won our votes, but she made a decision early on to ignore us - and that proved to be a very bad and possibly fatal decision.

I was in Washington DC at the "Take Back America" conference in 2006 when all the candidates gave their first major speeches to progressive voters. It was early in the campaign and no one was in a rush to make up their minds, especially since there was several excellent candidates. So we listened carefully to what each candidate had to say.

Hillary gave a good speech touching on the full list of progressive issues. But when it came to Iraq, she blew it. Unlike John Edwards, who also voted for the war in 2003, she refused to apologize for her vote. Unlike the other candidates, she refused to call for a deadline for bringing our troops home. And finally, she tried to blame Iraq for its problems, which outraged the audience and elicited angry boos. At that precise moment, Hillary lost the anti-war vote forever.

The anti-war vote never coalesced around any other candidate; it split between Kucinich, Edwards, Richardson, Dodd, and Obama. Still, it was a powerful enough force to keep Hillary from winning Iowa, where she came in third. And while she bounced back with a big win in New Hampshire, she lost the "inevitability" factor and GHWB's "Big Mo," momentum. It's safe to say that if Hillary had won Iowa, where anti-war activism was particularly strong, she would have been our nominee.

Finally, there was raw, old-fashioned sexism all over TV (collected video here). That TV sexism forced Hillary to avoid any mention of the actual problem of sexism in society (she was viciously attacked for her Wellesley speech) or show her femininity in any way (she was viciously attacked for a hint of cleavage). TV sexism managed to turn her strongest political asset - being the first viable woman candidate in history, in a country where women are the majority - into a liability.

As her campaign ends, her supporters find the sexism hardest to deal with. I wasn't a Clinton supporter, but I do too. As always, Digby says it better than I ever could:

Clinton's campaign ripped open a hole in our culture and forced us to look inside. And what we found was a simmering cauldron of crude, sophomoric sexism and ugly misogyny that a lot of us knew existed but didn't realize was still so socially acceptable that it could be broadcast on national television and garner nary a complaint from anybody but a few internet scolds like me. It was eye-opening, to say the least.

So I will do what I can to make sure Hillary and all of her supporters get treated with the respect they deserve - and have earned the old-fashioned way, through the hard work of campaigning and winning.

Update 1: Hunter makes a number of good points about Clinton's strategic error of running a safe race as the frontrunner.

I think her early anointing by the media did her campaign a disservice. She campaigned as the frontrunner from the outset, and as a Democratic frontrunner at that, and the age-old Democratic mandate for running campaigns has been one of excruciating timidity. The goal of most recent high-profile elections, the Kerry campaign included, the Gore campaign included, and several dozen other campaigns besides, has not been to win, but to simply avoid losing.

Towards that end, no large issues are addressed with too much passion, and no stances are taken with too much vigor, and for the love of God nobody is made to feel the slightest bit uncomfortable. It is playing to the middle writ large, and in crayon, and with big block letters. The goal is to assemble the broadest coalition possible -- by saying nothing that could possibly offend anyone. The premise is to appeal to "independents", and "centrists", and most of all the "undecided", that group of people so uninterested in politics that they cannot fathom the difference between the parties, but who allegedly can be mobilized into action if only you do absolutely nothing that will get them the slightest bit worked up. It is a cynical, wretched excuse for leadership, but more to the point it provides absolutely no room for error: it is an all-defensive strategy. If your opponent is a block of wood, incapable of making any positive plays on their own, you may pull it off; but if your opponent scores any point, you are left unable to answer it.

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Before you give her too much

Before you give her too much credit for facing sexism, look at the number of women in the Senate, then look at the number of blacks. Most pundits seem to be more comfortable talking about sexism than the war, but it was the war in particular and her conservative politics in general that hurt her.

I cited her support for the war

as one of the two crucial factors that stopped her - the other being sexism.

At worst, sexism and racism

At worst, sexism and racism balanced each other out in this race. Look at the differences between these candidates: the big one's the war.

Let me clarify

I don't buy the sexism thing as the reason Clinton lost to Obama.

Sexism sux, but even worse [imho] is the marginalization of Democrats by the Newt Gingrich republican playbook that used NLP to hypnotize the population into demeaning Dems & Liberals.

The EVEN WORSE THAN THAT thing is [if you listen] Democrats have been brainwashed too. Our representatives, when speaking, MUST stop using the republican propaganda frames ... we need to turn it against them at every opportunity.

If you're unfamiliar with Gingrich & NLP, Thom Hartmann has a good write-up here: http://www.thomhartmann.com/TH_NLPwk1.html

It's very informative - starts with a wee bit of background, & abt. 1/4 down the page goes into the bush/gingrich connection.

the problem with citing

complex theories like NLP is that few people have the time or background to figure out what they are.

so if you want to stimulate discussion, it would be helpful to put into plain language the essence of the theory as you understand it :)

In the case of the Gingrich

In the case of the Gingrich Republicans, it is not so much true Neurolinguistic Programming (a controversial form of psychotherapy)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neurolinguistic_programming
as it is simply the repetition of a lie over and over, until it becomes perceived as the "truth:"

"Liberals are like commies..."

"The 'L' word is un-American..."

"Democrats are from the 'tax and spend' Party..."

"Democrats are weak on defense and terrorism..."

"Democrats hate God..."

This Republican mode of "framing a subject" is directly from the Limbaugh/Hannity/Falwell/Gingrich/Rove/RNC playbooks of 2000 and 2004. This is essentially the Madison Avenue advertising method of implanting a message through frequent repetition and brand association.

Another name for this type of "messaging" is political propaganda.

We are too easily baited.

Question: Should we invade Iraq.

Conservative talking point: If a guy rapes your wife are you just going to stand there?

Reaction: Some Liberals and Conservative Baiter's debate that second quip.

Everyone forgets the question and it becomes an argument about our fundamental differences: immediate emotional reaction versus dispassionate intellectualism.

--------------

Someone calls in to say: What the hell are you talking about, Iraq didn't attack us anyway!

Their response: IF ANYONE TRIES TO HURT MY FAMILY WATCH OUT!!! You've heard the Liberals calling in and saying they would let the courts handle it. Yeah, right, if a guy tries to rape your wife, you're just going to stand there!!!!!

There is the repetition Bill alludes to. It is intimately connected to the baiting of Liberals on NON ISSUES.

I hope we are catching on that we should not try to convert folks to a Liberal way of thinking across a massive range of topics when only a single one at a time needs to be the focus.

(Further, some folks are NOT innately Liberal at heart. That needs to be appreciated, and to a degree, respected).

you're right about what

we should NOT say. but what SHOULD we say?

or, more importantly, HOW should we say it?

rightwingers don't impartially debate complicated questions - they shout simple and emotional answers, as your example above shows.

they are two entirely different modes of discourse. and emotional shouting has more emotional power than quiet factual debate.

so does that mean the only way we can beat the right is to shout louder?

TORTURE or TORTURE?

TWO THINGS MUST HAPPEN:

FIRST: Activists on the Left must recognize when a bait and switch is occuring.

These bait and switches are not even always generated by the Right, but by misunderstandings.

EXAMPLE: The movie DIRTY HARRY.

In it, Harry tortures by grinding his foot into the open gunshot wound of a serial rapist/murderer in order to gain information about the whereabouts of another of his victims (before that victim dies).

Both within the movie, and amongst movie goers, a discussion/argument ensues about torture, rights, victim's rights, etc. It splits the way political bait and switch arguments go but nobody usually realizes it. There are those who hate the torture, and those who support it to gain that life saving information.

The problem is, that as movie goers, we are like ALL SEEING GODS:

-WE KNOW THE SUSPECT IS GUILTY.
-WE KNOW THE SUSPECT IS A SERIAL MURDERING RAPIST.
-WE KNOW HIS NEXT VICTIM IS ABOUT TO DIE IF WE DON'T GET INFO OUT OF HIM.

This means, that the majority of reasons for why we don't torture are gone from this example, yet we continue to argue!

We don't torture because WE CAN'T BE SURE:

-OF GUILT.
-WE'LL GET THE INFO ANYWAY.
-THE TORTURER HAS NOT SIMPLY GONE EVIL THEMSELVES.
-THE COP WILL NOT BE ENCOURAGED IN RUTHLESSNESS, WHICH MAY THEN BLEED OVER TO AN INNOCENT VICTIM.

Even with the above pointed out, I'm sure there are those who would go further and simply say, it's wrong to torture. They may even produce no further analysis. THAT IS FINE AS FAR AS IT GOES.

The problem is, for a large subset of folks who WOULD vote Democratic, it does us no good to argue with them about generalities like rogue cops, when within context, we are all-seeing-gods who KNOW he is not a rogue.

When I get a moment I'll add an additional post about the Second thing we must do. As to the above I'll just say I have met resistance. Generally, activists want to argue about their fundamentals. I think however, that beyond each of us recognizing context, both the Right AND the Left could use some shaking up with respect to "fundamentals".

In the running example above: a lot of the reasons we don't torture DON'T apply to Dirty Harry, and there should be little argument about that. Those reasons however, are American, and are to be agreed upon by both the Right and the Left. Only beyond them should lie our disagreements.

Jim

WHAT WE MUST DO (Part 2)

Bob,

I'm happy to cover all bases with footnotes and caveats, but I'm not seeing much interest from supposed leading Left Wing Activists.

  • I'm not seeing a tireless effort towards a Progressive Agenda that BOTH Liberal and Conservative folks can relate to.
  • I'm not seeing a willingness to move outside one's comfort zone. (E.G. Peacefulness can elicit violence so remaining blissful MAY be immoral ever while looking waaaay cool).

So the short answer to your question is: YES, we must shout louder. It is a moral imperative!

I've obviously attempted it here on Democrats.com. One can debate whether the venue is correct, but the concept is sound. While you have moved us closer to the above, in part by tirelessly creating the necessary tools, I yearn to see greater progress.

----------------------------------------------------
By the way:

  • The "louder" has to do with emotional impact. With the need to penetrate. It looks nasty because it does NOT respect Liberal emotional sensibilities. It bows to Conservative emotional tendencies.
  • The "louder" I speak of however, is far softer -in content- than the Far Left crap we have coming from some Activists. It shows deference to Conservative folks in that content.

Jim

there are no

"leading Left Wing Activists."

there are just lots of individual netroots activists who take the actions they feel inspired to take.

so if you have ideas you believe can inspire individual activists, raise your flag up the proverbial flagpole and see who salutes!

Well...

...the proof is in the puddin so you are correct ;)

I would still advance however, that regardless of my personal ability to motivate, there is still some shame to go around. For example: Shame on us all if we only choose to conquer, rather than embrace conservative folks.

"embracing" may be a bit too strong

because it implies that we take on some of their views.

but i'm happy to appeal to them by showing how progressive core values (and policies) are much closer to their core values than Republican values (and policies) are.

I call that...

...an embrace ;)

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